Conflict-ravaged Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, numerous figures imprisoned and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the practice of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the election under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats urging people to shun the polls.

The army has been engaged on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own militias. It ceded territory of large parts of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three phases over the next month in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will go to the polls, making it challenging to predict a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into stages, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the United Kingdom and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, insisting that it aims to "restore a democracy with multiple parties".

"The election is being held for our nation. It is being held for the citizens of this country. It is not being held for the outside world," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are rejecting "the path to democracy".