Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
