Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been scrambled to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are evidently unprepared to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the situation will not change more in its favour in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
